If you’ve been watching markets lately, you’ve probably noticed something odd: investors seem far less worried about tariffs than headlines suggest they should be. Even as political rhetoric heats up, equities have stayed surprisingly resilient, with the S&P 500 grinding higher and volatility sitting below long-term averages, according to data from the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and Bloomberg market aggregates.
That disconnect matters. Because when markets stop reacting to the obvious headline risk, they tend to be quietly pricing in something else — something less visible, but potentially more damaging. That’s where investors should start focusing their attention.
So let’s ask the real question: if tariffs aren’t the trigger, what could actually spark the first major market correction of the Trump era?
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